Publications

Introducing the ICBe Dataset: Very High Recall and Precision Event Extraction from Narratives about International Crises

Published in ArXiv preprint, 2022

We introduce a new ontology and dataset of international events called ICBe based on a very high-quality corpus of narratives from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project.

Recommended citation: Douglass, Rex W., Thomas Leo Scherer, J. Andrés Gannon, Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay, Shannon Carcelli, Jonathan Wilkenfeld et al. "Introducing the ICBe Dataset: Very High Recall and Precision Event Extraction from Narratives about International Crises." arXiv preprint arXiv:2202.07081 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.07081

The Data Science of COVID-19 Spread: Some Troubling Current and Future Trends

Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2020

The SARS-COV-2 global pandemic has exposed weaknesses throughout our institutions, and the sciences are no exception.

Recommended citation: Douglass, R. W., Scherer, T. L., & Gartzke, E. (2020). The Data Science of COVID-19 Spread: Some Troubling Current and Future Trends, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 26(3), 20200053. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0053 https://www.degruyter.com/view/journals/peps/26/3/article-20200053.xml

Nuclear ambiguity, no-first-use, and crisis stability in asymmetric crises

Published in The Nonproliferation Review, 2018

The alleged benefits of NFU may be overstated, at least for crisis stability in asymmetric crises.

Recommended citation: Alexander Lanoszka & Thomas Leo Scherer (2017) Nuclear ambiguity, no-first-use, and crisis stability in asymmetric crises, The Nonproliferation Review, 24:3-4, 343-355 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10736700.2018.1430552?journalCode=rnpr20

Insecurity and Industrial Organization: Evidence from Afghanistan

Published in World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2018

This paper presents a novel methodology for observing private sector activity using mobile phone metadata.

Recommended citation: Scherer, Thomas Leo (2018, January 021). "Insecurity and Industrial Organization: Evidence from Afghanistan". World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/929591516198334068/pdf/WPS8301.pdf

Peace for Keeps: Peacekeeping and Civil War Outcomes

Published in Princeton University, 2015

Governments select into UNPKOs that help them stay in power for longer

Recommended citation: Scherer, Thomas Leo. "Peace for Keeps: Peacekeeping and Civil War Outcomes." Princeton, NJ : Princeton University. (2013). https://dataspace.princeton.edu/jspui/handle/88435/dsp015138jh267

Economics and Peacebuilding: A Crucial Connection

Published in USIP Insights, 2015

The effects of economic interventions on violence and stability outcomes are largely unknown.

Recommended citation: Kapstein, Ethan and Thomas Leo Scherer (2015, June). "Economics and Peacebuilding: A Crucial Connection", USIP Insights. http://www.usip.org/economics-and-peacebuilding-crucial-connection

The OECD’s fragility index is surprisingly fragile and difficult to reproduce

Published in The Washington Post, 2015

In my attempts to replicate the assessment, I found that the OECD misclassified a large number of states, a mistake that could have real-world repercussions.

Recommended citation: Scherer, Thomas Leo (2015, May 17). "The OECD’s fragility index is surprisingly fragile and difficult to reproduce", The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/17/the-oecds-fragility-index-is-surprisingly-fragile-and-difficult-to-reproduce/

Is Ebola the New Powder Keg?

Published in Foreign Policy, 2015

Taken cumulatively, the research suggests that while Ebola’s impact on West Africa is unquestionably immense, war is unlikely.

Recommended citation: Scherer, Thomas Leo (2015, February 02). "Is Ebola the New Powder Keg?", Foreign Policy. http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/02/is-ebola-the-new-powder-keg/

Why the Afghan election still isn’t over

Published in The Washington Post, 2014

Nearly two months after Afghans cast their presidential ballots, the electoral battle continues with the possibility of spiraling into violence. Why have the candidates continued to fight?

Recommended citation: Scherer, Thomas Leo (2014, August 12). "Why the Afghanistan Election Still Isn’t Over", The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/08/12/why-the-afghan-election-still-isnt-over/